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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 36

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(:14) 19-B.Maher 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.49 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 36, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model