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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 27

Cincinnati Bengals 9 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(6:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase to DAL 19 for 8 yards (7-T.Diggs) [11-M.Parsons].

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.16 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 27, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 37, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.57 EP