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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 69

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 10-K.Huber punts 44 yards to DAL 25, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.38 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 69, worth -3.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 27, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model