Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 13 at the 57

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

(10:35) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to CIN 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.19 EP
69% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 57, worth -2.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model