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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 48

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(2:19) 5-B.Anger punts 35 yards to CIN 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.52 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -0.73 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model