Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- ATL offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- ATL defense: +0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
- LA defense: -0.045 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
- LA on 3 more days rest than ATL
- QB edge to LA: Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.141 vs Marcus Mariota (ATL) +0.152 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 2
ATL
LA
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 01:48 TD LA (1:48) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 1-Al.Robinson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – LA 6
- Q2 09:34 TD LA (9:34) 27-D.Henderson right guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – LA 13
- Q2 02:47 FG ATL (2:47) 7-Y.Koo 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 3 – LA 14
- Q2 00:18 TD LA (:18) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 10-C.Kupp for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 3 – LA 20
- Q3 09:28 TD LA (9:28) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 10-C.Kupp for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 3 – LA 27
- Q3 03:24 TD ATL (3:24) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short left to 5-D.London for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 9 – LA 28
- Q4 12:16 FG LA (12:16) 8-M.Gay 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon. ATL 10 – LA 31
- Q4 08:21 TD ATL (8:21) (Shotgun) 1-M.Mariota pass short right to 17-O.Zaccheaus for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 16 – LA 31
- Q4 05:06 TD ATL (5:06) 11-R.Dixon punt is BLOCKED by 44-T.Andersen, Center-42-M.Orzech, RECOVERED by ATL-9-L.Carter at LA 26. 9-L.Carter for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 23 – LA 31
- Q4 00:13 SAF ATL (:13) (Run formation) 19-B.Powell right end ran ob in End Zone for -26 yards, SAFETY (37-D.Alford). ATL 27 – LA 31
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 ATL 4th & 18 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 86%
(6:59) 7-Y.Koo 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 2 at the 50Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 58% p(FG) 35%
(14:17) (Shotgun) 84-C.Patterson up the middle to 50 for no gain (91-G.Gaines, 45-B.Wagner).
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Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 13Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 96%
(5:30) 1-M.Mariota pass short right to 46-P.Hesse to LA 8 for 5 yards (4-J.Fuller; 53-E.Jones) [99-A.Donald].
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Q2 ATL 4th & 8 at the 8Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 98%
(2:47) 7-Y.Koo 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
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Q3 ATL 4th & 10 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(7:26) 13-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to LA 31, Center-48-L.McCullough. 19-B.Powell to LA 30 for -1 yards (28-M.Ford).
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Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 1Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.19 EPp(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%
(12:16) 8-M.Gay 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.
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Q4 LA 4th & 8 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(5:06) 11-R.Dixon punt is BLOCKED by 44-T.Andersen, Center-42-M.Orzech, RECOVERED by ATL-9-L.Carter at LA 26. 9-L.Carter for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 LA 4th & 7 at the 74 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.51 EPp(convert) 42%
(:13) (Run formation) 19-B.Powell right end ran ob in End Zone for -26 yards, SAFETY (37-D.Alford).