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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 18 at the 26

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(6:59) 7-Y.Koo 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.34 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 36, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model