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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 1

Los Angeles Rams 28 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(12:16) 8-M.Gay 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +4.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.84 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 1, worth +0.67 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.19 EP