Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 74

Los Angeles Rams 31 – Atlanta Falcons 25

(:13) (Run formation) 19-B.Powell right end ran ob in End Zone for -26 yards, SAFETY (37-D.Alford).

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP

What Happened

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +0.11 EP
58% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 74, worth -1.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.51 EP