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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 13

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(5:30) 1-M.Mariota pass short right to 46-P.Hesse to LA 8 for 5 yards (4-J.Fuller; 53-E.Jones) [99-A.Donald].

The Three Options

GO +3.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.90 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 13, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 23, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model