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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 50

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(14:17) (Shotgun) 84-C.Patterson up the middle to 50 for no gain (91-G.Gaines, 45-B.Wagner).

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.61 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 50, worth -2.97 EP
KICK -1.35 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model