Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 75

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Los Angeles Rams 28

(7:26) 13-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to LA 31, Center-48-L.McCullough. 19-B.Powell to LA 30 for -1 yards (28-M.Ford).

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 75, worth -4.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model