Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 59

Los Angeles Rams 31 – Atlanta Falcons 17

(5:06) 11-R.Dixon punt is BLOCKED by 44-T.Andersen, Center-42-M.Orzech, RECOVERED by ATL-9-L.Carter at LA 26. 9-L.Carter for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.17 EP
62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 59, worth -2.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model