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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
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Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2022-09-11 · 20:20 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

TB
44.9%
DAL
55.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: +0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.095 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • DAL defense: -0.105 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • TB defense: -0.107 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.110 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

TB 22
–
DAL 24
Projected margin: DAL by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

TB

Zyon McCollum CB Out Hamstring
Chris Godwin WR Questionable Knee
Russell Gage WR Questionable Hamstring

DAL

Michael Gallup WR Out Knee
Jayron Kearse S Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 19
–
DAL 3

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:06 FG DAL (9:06) 19-B.Maher 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. TB 0 – DAL 3
  • Q1 05:09 FG TB (5:09) 3-R.Succop 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 3 – DAL 3
  • Q1 01:10 FG TB (1:10) 3-R.Succop 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 6 – DAL 3
  • Q2 03:28 FG TB (3:28) 3-R.Succop 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 9 – DAL 3
  • Q2 00:19 FG TB (:19) 3-R.Succop 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 12 – DAL 3
  • Q3 03:27 TD TB (3:27) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 18 – DAL 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 11 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 77%

    (9:06) 19-B.Maher 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 2 at the 26
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 86%

    (5:09) 3-R.Succop 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (4:03) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to TB 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 1-J.Darden pushed ob at TB 31 for 10 yards (20-T.Pollard).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 5 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 92%

    (1:10) 3-R.Succop 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 4 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (14:55) 5-B.Anger punts 54 yards to TB 30, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 1-J.Darden to TB 39 for 9 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 15 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 93%

    (7:34) 3-R.Succop 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 10 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (3:28) 3-R.Succop 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 10 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:56) 5-B.Anger punts 53 yards to TB 10, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by DAL-50-D.Harper.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 10 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 82%

    (:19) 3-R.Succop 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:19) 5-J.Camarda punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 13 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:18) 5-B.Anger punts 58 yards to TB 12, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 1-J.Darden pushed ob at TB 21 for 9 yards (57-L.Gifford).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 2 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 57%

    (13:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Houston (45-D.White).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 8 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 35%

    (11:20) 5-B.Anger punts 37 yards to TB 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 8 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:08) 5-J.Camarda punts 46 yards to DAL 14, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 42 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 55%

    (4:57) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short left to 86-D.Schultz to TB 37 for 5 yards (35-J.Dean, 54-L.David).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 15 at the 42 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 55%

    (3:21) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass incomplete deep right to 81-S.Fehoko (32-M.Edwards).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 11 at the 59 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:59) 5-J.Camarda punts 43 yards to DAL 16, Center-97-Z.Triner. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 19 for 3 yards (52-K.Britt).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 3 at the 74 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (2:13) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass deep middle to 85-N.Brown to DAL 43 for 17 yards (32-M.Edwards; 26-L.Ryan).

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 12 at the 59 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short middle to 20-T.Pollard to TB 49 for 10 yards (45-D.White) [50-V.Vea].