Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 73

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

(4:03) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to TB 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 1-J.Darden pushed ob at TB 31 for 10 yards (20-T.Pollard).

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model