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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 3-R.Succop 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.80 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 20, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model