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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 26

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(5:09) 3-R.Succop 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.21 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 36, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP