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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 84

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 5-B.Anger punts 54 yards to TB 30, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 1-J.Darden to TB 39 for 9 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.92 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.93 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 42, worth -1.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model