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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 15 at the 18

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(7:34) 3-R.Succop 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.04 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 18, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 28, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model