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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 12 at the 59

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19

What Actually Happened

(:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short middle to 20-T.Pollard to TB 49 for 10 yards (45-D.White) [50-V.Vea].

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +1.57 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 59, worth -0.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model