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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 15 at the 42

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19

What Actually Happened

(3:21) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass incomplete deep right to 81-S.Fehoko (32-M.Edwards).

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.61 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.40 EP