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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
Sunday 2022-09-11 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

NE
47.2%
MIA
52.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA defense: -0.172 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • MIA offense: -0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • Mac Jones (NE): +0.138 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NE 22
–
MIA 24
Projected margin: MIA by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

NE

Joshuah Bledsoe S Questionable Groin
Jakobi Meyers WR Questionable Knee
Ty Montgomery WR Questionable Knee
Shaun Wade CB Questionable Ankle
Isaiah Wynn T Questionable Back

MIA

Salvon Ahmed RB Questionable Heel
Tanner Conner TE Questionable Knee
Raekwon Davis DT Questionable Knee
Eric Rowe S Questionable Pectoral
Andrew Van Ginkel LB Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 7
–
MIA 20

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:10 FG MIA (4:10) 7-J.Sanders 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. NE 0 – MIA 3
  • Q2 07:40 TD MIA (7:40) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at NE 6 for -9 yards (29-Br.Jones). FUMBLES (29-Br.Jones) [29-Br.Jones], RECOVERED by MIA-6-M.Ingram at NE 2. 6-M.Ingram for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – MIA 9
  • Q2 00:24 TD MIA (:24) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – MIA 16
  • Q3 04:50 TD NE (4:50) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 14-T.Montgomery for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – MIA 17
  • Q3 00:24 FG MIA (:24) 7-J.Sanders 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. NE 7 – MIA 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 13 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 86%

    (4:10) 7-J.Sanders 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 55%

    (14:15) 7-J.Bailey punts 34 yards to MIA 6, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 32%

    (7:53) 4-T.Morstead punts 34 yards to NE 15, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 27-M.Bryant.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 45%

    (4:14) 7-J.Bailey punts 36 yards to MIA 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 42
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 50%

    (:24) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 2 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (13:15) 4-T.Morstead punts 58 yards to NE 8, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 27-M.Bryant to NE 8 for no gain (20-J.Bethel).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 5 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 76%

    (:24) 7-J.Sanders 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (12:54) 7-J.Bailey punts 48 yards to MIA 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (11:19) 4-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to NE 31, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 27-M.Bryant to NE 43 for 12 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel; 27-K.Crossen).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 3 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 30%

    (9:46) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete deep middle to 85-H.Henry (28-K.Kohou). Penalty on NE-77-T.Brown, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 20 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 39%

    (6:06) 4-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to NE 5, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-27-K.Crossen.