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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 7 at the 42

Miami Dolphins 10 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(:24) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 17-J.Waddle for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.16 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 42, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.73 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model