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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 49

Miami Dolphins 3 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(7:53) 4-T.Morstead punts 34 yards to NE 15, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 27-M.Bryant.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.05 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -1.13 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model