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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 31

Miami Dolphins 17 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(:24) 7-J.Sanders 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.38 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 31, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 41, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model