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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 50

New England Patriots 7 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(9:46) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete deep middle to 85-H.Henry (28-K.Kohou). Penalty on NE-77-T.Brown, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.60 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 50, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.54 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.86 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model