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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 44

New England Patriots 0 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(4:14) 7-J.Bailey punts 36 yards to MIA 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.31 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 44, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -1.05 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model