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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 81

Miami Dolphins 20 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(11:19) 4-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to NE 31, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 27-M.Bryant to NE 43 for 12 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel; 27-K.Crossen).

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.98 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 81, worth -4.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 38, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP