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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 40

New England Patriots 0 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 7-J.Bailey punts 34 yards to MIA 6, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 8-J.Holland.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.59 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 40, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model