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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
GB Home

Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Saturday 2022-01-22 · 20:15 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌨 Snow Spread 5.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

SF
31.8%
GB
68.2%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.223 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • SF offense: +0.051 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • GB on 7 more days rest than SF
  • QB edge to GB: Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.270 vs Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +0.180 EPA/dropback
  • SF defense: -0.078 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 20
–
GB 26
Projected margin: GB by 6 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 20

SF

Nick Bosa DE Questionable Concussion
Ambry Thomas CB Questionable Knee
Jordan Willis DE Questionable Ankle

GB

Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR Doubtful Back
David Bakhtiari T Questionable Knee
Jaire Alexander CB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 20 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 13
–
GB 10

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:30 TD GB (9:30) 28-A.Dillon up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – GB 6
  • Q3 08:18 FG SF (8:18) 9-R.Gould 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 3 – GB 7
  • Q4 11:30 FG GB (11:30) 2-M.Crosby 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez. SF 3 – GB 10
  • Q4 04:50 TD SF (4:50) 7-C.Bojorquez punt is BLOCKED by 94-J.Willis, Center-46-S.Wirtel, RECOVERED by SF-29-T.Hufanga at GB 6. 29-T.Hufanga for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 9 – GB 10
  • Q4 00:04 FG SF (:04) 9-R.Gould 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 13 – GB 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 10 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (2:30) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 42 yards to GB 16, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 6 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:28) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to SF 38, Center-46-S.Wirtel, downed by GB-19-E.St. Brown.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 11 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:25) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 52 yards to GB 11, Center-46-T.Pepper. 8-Am.Rodgers pushed ob at GB 17 for 6 yards (53-M.Nzeocha).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 14 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:19) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 59 yards to SF 28, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 17-T.Benjamin to SF 34 for 6 yards (19-E.St. Brown, 42-O.Burks).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 13 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:46) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to GB 20, Center-46-T.Pepper. 8-Am.Rodgers ran ob at GB 25 for 5 yards (81-T.Sherfield).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 42%

    (6:46) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to SF 23, Center-46-S.Wirtel, out of bounds.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 4 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 96%

    (8:18) 9-R.Gould 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (7:13) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to SF 21, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 17-T.Benjamin to SF 28 for 7 yards (42-O.Burks).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 11 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (5:35) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to GB 28, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 94%

    (11:30) 2-M.Crosby 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 91%

    (6:14) 71-T.Williams reported in as eligible. 25-E.Mitchell up the middle to GB 20 for -1 yards (52-R.Gary, 59-D.Campbell).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 19 at the 88 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:50) 7-C.Bojorquez punt is BLOCKED by 94-J.Willis, Center-46-S.Wirtel, RECOVERED by SF-29-T.Hufanga at GB 6. 29-T.Hufanga for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 16 at the 77 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:33) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to SF 20, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 17-T.Benjamin to SF 29 for 9 yards (81-J.Deguara).