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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 19

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(6:14) 71-T.Williams reported in as eligible. 25-E.Mitchell up the middle to GB 20 for -1 yards (52-R.Gary, 59-D.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO +2.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.60 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model