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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 13 at the 69

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:46) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to GB 20, Center-46-T.Pepper. 8-Am.Rodgers ran ob at GB 25 for 5 yards (81-T.Sherfield).

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.12 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 27, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model