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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 58

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:30) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 42 yards to GB 16, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.63 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 18, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model