Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 63

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

(:25) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 52 yards to GB 11, Center-46-T.Pepper. 8-Am.Rodgers pushed ob at GB 17 for 6 yards (53-M.Nzeocha).

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.46 EP
66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model