Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 77

Green Bay Packers 10 – San Francisco 49ers 10

(3:33) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to SF 20, Center-46-S.Wirtel. 17-T.Benjamin to SF 29 for 9 yards (81-J.Deguara).

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.44 EP
68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model