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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 11

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 9-R.Gould 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.48 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP