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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 80

Green Bay Packers 7 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:28) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to SF 38, Center-46-S.Wirtel, downed by GB-19-E.St. Brown.

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.34 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.74 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 37, worth -1.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model