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Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Monday 2022-01-17 · 20:15 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.0 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

ARI
40.7%
LA
59.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LA offense: +0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • Matthew Stafford (LA): +0.115 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Kyler Murray (ARI): +0.109 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

ARI 21
–
LA 25
Projected margin: LA by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

ARI

Justin Pugh G Questionable Calf
Jordan Phillips DE Questionable Knee
Marco Wilson CB Questionable Shoulder
James Conner RB Questionable Ribs
Rondale Moore WR Questionable Ankle
Jonathan Ward RB Questionable Knee

LA

Taylor Rapp S Out Concussion
Buddy Howell RB Doubtful Hamstring
Van Jefferson WR Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 11
–
LA 34

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:55 TD LA (3:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 3-O.Beckham for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – LA 6
  • Q2 12:01 TD LA (12:01) 9-M.Stafford up the middle to ARI 1 for no gain (94-Z.Allen; 44-M.Golden). Los Angeles Rams challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 9-M.Stafford up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – LA 13
  • Q2 08:07 TD LA (8:07) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 4-R.Moore INTERCEPTED by 22-D.Long [51-T.Reeder] at ARI 3. 22-D.Long for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – LA 20
  • Q3 10:40 TD LA (10:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 10-C.Kupp for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – LA 27
  • Q3 04:15 TD ARI (4:15) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – LA 28
  • Q4 15:00 FG LA (15:00) 8-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. ARI 8 – LA 31
  • Q4 10:17 FG ARI (10:17) 5-M.Prater 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. ARI 11 – LA 31
  • Q4 04:25 FG LA (4:25) 8-M.Gay 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. ARI 11 – LA 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:52) 14-A.Lee punts 51 yards to LA 20, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 17 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 30%

    (11:05) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to ARI 9, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by LA-43-J.Gervase.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 11 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:06) 14-A.Lee punts 52 yards to LA 40, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-B.Powell to LA 48 for 8 yards (51-T.Vallejo, 46-A.Brewer).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:40) 14-A.Lee punts 37 yards to LA 39, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-B.Powell to 50 for 11 yards (33-A.Hamilton).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 4 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 49%

    (8:55) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to ARI 1, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by LA-18-B.Skowronek.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 14 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:53) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to ARI 10, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 9 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:00) 14-A.Lee punts 47 yards to LA 42, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 5 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 27%

    (:42) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to ARI 13, Center-42-M.Orzech. 13-C.Kirk MUFFS catch, and recovers at ARI 14.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 4 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (7:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles right end to LA 49 for 7 yards (5-J.Ramsey).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 92%

    (15:00) 8-M.Gay 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 20 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 66%

    (10:17) 5-M.Prater 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 3 at the 28 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 83%

    (4:25) 8-M.Gay 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 9 at the 61 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 85-A.Wesley.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 7 at the 36 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.37 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 68%

    (1:13) 6-J.Hekker punts 27 yards to ARI 9, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by LA-43-J.Gervase.