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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 56

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 28

What Actually Happened

(7:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray scrambles right end to LA 49 for 7 yards (5-J.Ramsey).

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.66 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 56, worth -2.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 17, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model