4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 36

Los Angeles Rams 34 – Arizona Cardinals 11

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 6-J.Hekker punts 27 yards to ARI 9, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by LA-43-J.Gervase.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +2.26 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 36, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 46, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.37 EP