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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 92

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(10:06) 14-A.Lee punts 52 yards to LA 40, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-B.Powell to LA 48 for 8 yards (51-T.Vallejo, 46-A.Brewer).

The Three Options

GO -3.52 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.29 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 92, worth -5.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -3.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 50, worth -3.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model