Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 76

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 14

(10:40) 14-A.Lee punts 37 yards to LA 39, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-B.Powell to 50 for 11 yards (33-A.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.03 EP
66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 76, worth -4.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model