4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 17 at the 52

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(11:05) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to ARI 9, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by LA-43-J.Gervase.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.96 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 52, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model