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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 71

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(13:52) 14-A.Lee punts 51 yards to LA 20, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 71, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.98 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 29, worth -1.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model