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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 44

Los Angeles Rams 14 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(8:55) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to ARI 1, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by LA-18-B.Skowronek.

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.34 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 44, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -0.74 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.92 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP