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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
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ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
Sunday 2022-01-09 · 16:25 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread -4.5 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

NO
41.9%
ATL
58.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: -0.174 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • ATL offense: -0.156 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Taysom Hill (NO): -0.169 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ATL defense: +0.070 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NO defense: -0.100 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 20
–
ATL 22
Projected margin: ATL by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

NO

Terron Armstead T Out Knee
Bradley Roby CB Out Shoulder
P.J. Williams CB Out Ankle
Mark Ingram RB Questionable Knee
Marcus Davenport DE Questionable Ankle
Ryan Ramczyk T Questionable Knee

ATL

Jalen Mayfield G Questionable Back
Frank Darby WR Questionable Shoulder
Qadree Ollison RB Questionable Quadricep
Kyle Pitts TE Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 30
–
ATL 20

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:36 TD NO (8:36) 7-T.Hill pass short left to 82-A.Trautman for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – ATL 0
  • Q1 03:20 FG ATL (3:20) 7-Y.Koo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead. NO 7 – ATL 3
  • Q2 10:36 FG ATL (10:36) 7-Y.Koo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead. NO 7 – ATL 6
  • Q2 05:52 TD NO (5:52) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass short left to 10-T.Smith for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NO-10-T.Smith, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. NO 13 – ATL 6
  • Q2 01:08 FG NO (1:08) 19-B.Maher 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. NO 17 – ATL 6
  • Q2 00:07 TD NO (:07) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass short middle to 83-J.Johnson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 23 – ATL 6
  • Q3 02:56 TD ATL (2:56) 30-Q.Ollison right guard for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 24 – ATL 12
  • Q4 10:59 FG NO (10:59) 19-B.Maher 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. NO 27 – ATL 13
  • Q4 07:41 FG NO (7:41) 19-B.Maher 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. NO 30 – ATL 13
  • Q4 00:27 TD ATL (:27) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 14-R.Gage for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NO 30 – ATL 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 16 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 80%

    (3:20) 7-Y.Koo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 9 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 94%

    (13:33) 19-B.Maher 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 3 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 68%

    (10:36) 7-Y.Koo 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 3 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 93%

    (1:08) 19-B.Maher 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 3 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (13:40) 19-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to NO 14, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (10:08) 79-J.Mills reported in as eligible. 15-T.Siemian right guard to NO 45 for no gain (6-D.Fowler, 90-M.Davidson). Penalty on NO, Illegal Formation, declined.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 2 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (6:36) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 30-Q.Ollison (94-C.Jordan).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 2 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (4:12) 4-B.Gillikin punts 52 yards to ATL 32, Center-49-Z.Wood. 35-A.Williams to ATL 44 for 12 yards (55-K.Elliss).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (10:59) 19-B.Maher 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 6 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 95%

    (7:41) 19-B.Maher 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 10 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (6:04) 19-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to NO 28, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 63 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (4:24) 4-B.Gillikin punts 48 yards to ATL 15, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 2 at the 77 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59%

    (2:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 14-R.Gage to ATL 44 for 21 yards (25-K.Crawley).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 10 at the 19 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.46 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 92%

    (1:12) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 14-R.Gage to NO 1 for 18 yards (29-P.Adebo).