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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 16 at the 30

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(3:20) 7-Y.Koo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-19-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.25 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 40, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model