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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 16

New Orleans Saints 7 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 19-B.Maher 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.43 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 16, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model