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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 8

Atlanta Falcons 6 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(6:36) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short right to 30-Q.Ollison (94-C.Jordan).

The Three Options

GO +2.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.63 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 8, worth +0.28 EP
KICK +2.18 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model