Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 76

Atlanta Falcons 13 – New Orleans Saints 30

(6:04) 19-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to NO 28, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.27 EP
68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 76, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model